In this special report on Ukraine, we review the events over the past year and will be exploring what variables can impact the development of the conflict as well as listing different scenarios for how the war might end.

After the first year of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, an end to hostilities and a peace treaty appear to be a distant prospect. The two sides’ pre-conditions to start negotiations are diametrically opposed.

Fighting is likely to continue for the coming year, but three main variables will influence the trajectory of hostilities: arms supplies and their effective use, resolve and willingness to fight, and government stability.

The ways these variables combine will impact outcomes on the battlefield, which will in turn set the stage for varying political outcomes.

Three scenarios are explored:

  • Russia advances (Low likelihood)
  • Ukraine pushes forward (Moderate likelihood)
  • A stalemate takes hold (High likelihood)

Lastly, economic and business implications for Ukraine are analysed, with a look at specific industries that are set to gain and lose from the war outcomes. Recommendations are given to hedge risks and take advantage of specific opportunities.